Quantitative analysis of most important infectious disease trend by climate change in Iran: Spatial trend analysis using Mann-Kendal

• Main Authors: Elham Ahmadnezhad, Zhaleh Abdi, Abolhassan Safdari, Farshid Fayyaz-Jahani, Sheida Malek-Afzali, Soraya Fathollahi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Tehran University of Medical Sciences 2016-12-01
• Series: Journal of Biostatistics and Epidemiology
• Subjects: Climate change; Infectious disease; Mann-Kendall trend tests; Spatial
• Online Access: https://jbe.tums.ac.ir/index.php/jbe/article/view/84

Background & Aim: The aim of the study was to define the epidemiological characteristics of most important infectious diseases in Iran in recent decades. Methods & Materials: This was a situation trend analysis of infectious diseases (vector and water borne disease, and food borne diseases) in recent decades based on data availability. Three significance levels were used for Mann-Kendall test (90%, 95% and 99%). Results: The morbidities of most studied diseases had decreased in whole of the country. Unlike other diseases, coetaneous leishmaniasis had not followed the deacreasing trend. In terms of location, Khorasan-e-Shomali was followed the increasing pattern for in four out of six disaeses [malaria, leishmaniasis (coetaneous and visceral), and typhoid]. Conclusion: In conclusion, there is a significant decreasing trend of most important infectious diseases in Iran. Nevertheless, climate change is already happening and would influence the diseases trends. Hence, developing and implementing adaptation strate ies should be considered.