On the duration of the period between exposure to HIV and detectable infection
HIV infection cannot be detected immediately after exposure because plasma viral loads are too small initially. The duration of this phase of infection (the “eclipse period”) is difficult to estimate because precise dates of exposure are rarely known. Therefore, the reliability of clinical HIV testi...
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doaj-fde2db662b5d4d09a904a1417fc9d2a22020-11-24T21:00:25ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43651878-00672017-09-0120C738310.1016/j.epidem.2017.03.002On the duration of the period between exposure to HIV and detectable infectionBernhard P. Konrad0Darlene Taylor1Jessica M. Conway2Gina S. Ogilvie3Daniel Coombs4Department of Mathematics and Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, CanadaBritish Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 W 12th Ave., Vancouver, BC V5Z 4R4, CanadaDepartment of Mathematics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USABritish Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 W 12th Ave., Vancouver, BC V5Z 4R4, CanadaDepartment of Mathematics and Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, CanadaHIV infection cannot be detected immediately after exposure because plasma viral loads are too small initially. The duration of this phase of infection (the “eclipse period”) is difficult to estimate because precise dates of exposure are rarely known. Therefore, the reliability of clinical HIV testing during the first few weeks of infection is unknown, creating anxiety among HIV-exposed individuals and their physicians. We address this by fitting stochastic models of early HIV infection to detailed viral load records for 78 plasma donors, taken during the period of exposure and infection. We first show that the classic stochastic birth-death model does not satisfactorily describe early infection. We therefore apply a different stochastic model that includes infected cells and virions separately. Since every plasma donor in our data eventually becomes infected, we must condition the model to reflect this bias, before fitting to the data. Applying our best estimates of unknown parameter values, we estimate the mean eclipse period to be 8–10 days. We further estimate the reliability of a negative test t days after potential exposure.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436517300646HIVEclipse periodViral kineticsStochastic modelling |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Bernhard P. Konrad Darlene Taylor Jessica M. Conway Gina S. Ogilvie Daniel Coombs |
spellingShingle |
Bernhard P. Konrad Darlene Taylor Jessica M. Conway Gina S. Ogilvie Daniel Coombs On the duration of the period between exposure to HIV and detectable infection Epidemics HIV Eclipse period Viral kinetics Stochastic modelling |
author_facet |
Bernhard P. Konrad Darlene Taylor Jessica M. Conway Gina S. Ogilvie Daniel Coombs |
author_sort |
Bernhard P. Konrad |
title |
On the duration of the period between exposure to HIV and detectable infection |
title_short |
On the duration of the period between exposure to HIV and detectable infection |
title_full |
On the duration of the period between exposure to HIV and detectable infection |
title_fullStr |
On the duration of the period between exposure to HIV and detectable infection |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the duration of the period between exposure to HIV and detectable infection |
title_sort |
on the duration of the period between exposure to hiv and detectable infection |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
Epidemics |
issn |
1755-4365 1878-0067 |
publishDate |
2017-09-01 |
description |
HIV infection cannot be detected immediately after exposure because plasma viral loads are too small initially. The duration of this phase of infection (the “eclipse period”) is difficult to estimate because precise dates of exposure are rarely known. Therefore, the reliability of clinical HIV testing during the first few weeks of infection is unknown, creating anxiety among HIV-exposed individuals and their physicians. We address this by fitting stochastic models of early HIV infection to detailed viral load records for 78 plasma donors, taken during the period of exposure and infection. We first show that the classic stochastic birth-death model does not satisfactorily describe early infection. We therefore apply a different stochastic model that includes infected cells and virions separately. Since every plasma donor in our data eventually becomes infected, we must condition the model to reflect this bias, before fitting to the data. Applying our best estimates of unknown parameter values, we estimate the mean eclipse period to be 8–10 days. We further estimate the reliability of a negative test t days after potential exposure. |
topic |
HIV Eclipse period Viral kinetics Stochastic modelling |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436517300646 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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1716779734770122752 |