Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa
Abstract Globally, malaria cases have drastically dropped in recent years. However, a high incidence of malaria remains in some sub-Saharan African countries. South Africa is mostly malaria-free, but northeastern provinces continue to experience seasonal outbreaks. Here we investigate the associatio...
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doaj-fe684143cc6f409ab7108dbae9d8586c2020-12-08T02:35:15ZengNature Publishing GroupScientific Reports2045-23222017-05-01711910.1038/s41598-017-02680-6Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South AfricaTakayoshi Ikeda0Swadhin K. Behera1Yushi Morioka2Noboru Minakawa3Masahiro Hashizume4Ataru Tsuzuki5Rajendra Maharaj6Philip Kruger7Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama Institute for Earth SciencesJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama Institute for Earth SciencesJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama Institute for Earth SciencesNagasaki University, Institute of Tropical MedicineNagasaki University, Institute of Tropical MedicineNagasaki University, Institute of Tropical MedicineMalaria Research Programme, Medical Research CouncilMalaria Control Programme, Limpopo Department of HealthAbstract Globally, malaria cases have drastically dropped in recent years. However, a high incidence of malaria remains in some sub-Saharan African countries. South Africa is mostly malaria-free, but northeastern provinces continue to experience seasonal outbreaks. Here we investigate the association between malaria incidence and spatio-temporal climate variations in Limpopo. First, dominant spatial patterns in malaria incidence anomalies were identified using self-organizing maps. Composite analysis found significant associations among incidence anomalies and climate patterns. A high incidence of malaria during the pre-peak season (Sep-Nov) was associated with the climate phenomenon La Niña and cool air temperatures over southern Africa. There was also high precipitation over neighbouring countries two to six months prior to malaria incidence. During the peak season (Dec-Feb), high incidence was associated with positive phase of Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole. Warm temperatures and high precipitation in neighbouring countries were also observed two months prior to increased malaria incidence. This lagged association between regional climate and malaria incidence suggests that in areas at high risk for malaria, such as Limpopo, management plans should consider not only local climate patterns but those of neighbouring countries as well. These findings highlight the need to strengthen cross-border control of malaria to minimize its spread.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02680-6 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Takayoshi Ikeda Swadhin K. Behera Yushi Morioka Noboru Minakawa Masahiro Hashizume Ataru Tsuzuki Rajendra Maharaj Philip Kruger |
spellingShingle |
Takayoshi Ikeda Swadhin K. Behera Yushi Morioka Noboru Minakawa Masahiro Hashizume Ataru Tsuzuki Rajendra Maharaj Philip Kruger Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa Scientific Reports |
author_facet |
Takayoshi Ikeda Swadhin K. Behera Yushi Morioka Noboru Minakawa Masahiro Hashizume Ataru Tsuzuki Rajendra Maharaj Philip Kruger |
author_sort |
Takayoshi Ikeda |
title |
Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa |
title_short |
Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa |
title_full |
Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa |
title_fullStr |
Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa |
title_sort |
seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in south africa |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
series |
Scientific Reports |
issn |
2045-2322 |
publishDate |
2017-05-01 |
description |
Abstract Globally, malaria cases have drastically dropped in recent years. However, a high incidence of malaria remains in some sub-Saharan African countries. South Africa is mostly malaria-free, but northeastern provinces continue to experience seasonal outbreaks. Here we investigate the association between malaria incidence and spatio-temporal climate variations in Limpopo. First, dominant spatial patterns in malaria incidence anomalies were identified using self-organizing maps. Composite analysis found significant associations among incidence anomalies and climate patterns. A high incidence of malaria during the pre-peak season (Sep-Nov) was associated with the climate phenomenon La Niña and cool air temperatures over southern Africa. There was also high precipitation over neighbouring countries two to six months prior to malaria incidence. During the peak season (Dec-Feb), high incidence was associated with positive phase of Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole. Warm temperatures and high precipitation in neighbouring countries were also observed two months prior to increased malaria incidence. This lagged association between regional climate and malaria incidence suggests that in areas at high risk for malaria, such as Limpopo, management plans should consider not only local climate patterns but those of neighbouring countries as well. These findings highlight the need to strengthen cross-border control of malaria to minimize its spread. |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02680-6 |
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