Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate

• Main Authors: Lickley, Megan Jeramaz (Author), Solomon, Susan (Author), Fletcher, Sarah Marie (Author), Stone, Kane Adam (Author)
• Other Authors: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (Contributor), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Contributor)
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020-04-15T19:38:12Z.
• Subjects: Article
• Online Access: Get fulltext

 Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources. ©2020