What does and does not correlate with COVID-19 death rates

• Main Authors: Aleta, Alberto (Author), Martín-Corral, David (Author), Pastore y Piontti, Ana (Author), Ajelli, Marco (Author), Litvinova, Maria (Author), Chinazzi, Matteo (Author), Dean, Natalie E. (Author), Halloran, M. Elizabeth (Author), Longini Jr, Ira M. (Author), Merler, Stefano (Author), Pentland, Alex Paul (Author), Vespignani, Alessandro (Author), Moro Egido, Esteban (Author), Moreno, Yamir (Author)
• Other Authors: Sloan School of Management (Contributor), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (Contributor)
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020-09-09T17:00:42Z.
• Subjects: Article
• Online Access: Get fulltext

 While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.