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128365 |
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|a Wong, Felix
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|a Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Medical Engineering & Science
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|a Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Biological Engineering
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|a Collins, James J.
|e author
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|a Evidence that coronavirus superspreading is fat-tailed
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|b National Academy of Sciences,
|c 2020-11-05T19:44:27Z.
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|z Get fulltext
|u https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128365
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|a Superspreaders, infected individuals who result in an outsized number of secondary cases, are believed to underlie a significant fraction of total SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, we combine empirical observations of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission and extreme value statistics to show that the distribution of secondary cases is consistent with being fat-tailed, implying that large superspreading events are extremal, yet probable, occurrences. We integrate these results with interaction-based network models of disease transmission and show that superspreading, when it is fat-tailed, leads to pronounced transmission by increasing dispersion. Our findings indicate that large superspreading events should be the targets of interventions that minimize tail exposure.
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|a Article
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|t Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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