Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
<jats:title>Significance</jats:title> <jats:p>This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
2022-07-20T14:06:59Z.
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| Online Access: | Get fulltext |
| Summary: | <jats:title>Significance</jats:title> <jats:p>This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.</jats:p> |
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