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|a Shah, Devavrat
|e author
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|a Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
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|b Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
|c 2022-07-20T14:06:59Z.
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|z Get fulltext
|u https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/143879
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|a <jats:title>Significance</jats:title> <jats:p>This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.</jats:p>
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|a Article
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|t 10.1073/pnas.2113561119
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|t Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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