Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

• Main Author: Shah, Devavrat (Author)
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022-07-20T14:06:59Z.
• Subjects: Article
• Online Access: Get fulltext

 <jats:title>Significance</jats:title> <jats:p>This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.</jats:p>