Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound

• Main Authors: Caballero, Ricardo J (Author), Farhi, Emmanuel (Author), Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier (Author)
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford University Press (OUP), 2022-08-26T12:01:59Z.
• Subjects: Article
• Online Access: Get fulltext

 <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>This article explores the consequences of extremely low real interest rates in a world with integrated but heterogeneous capital markets, nominal rigidities, and an effective lower bound [a zero lower bound (ZLB) for simplicity]. We establish four main results: (1) At the ZLB, creditor countries export their recession abroad, which we illustrate with a new Metzler diagram in quantities; (2) Beggar-thy-neighbour currency and trade wars provide stimulus to the undertaking country at the expense of other countries; (3) (Safe) public debt issuances and increases in government spending anywhere are expansionary everywhere; and (4) When there is a scarcity of safe assets, net issuers of these assets import the recession from abroad.</jats:p>