俄羅斯政經環境對台俄經貿關係之影響（1992-2000）

• Main Author: 古鳳玉
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 台俄經貿關係; 俄羅斯政治; 俄羅斯經濟; 普欽; Taiwan-Russia economic and trade relation; Russian politics; Russian economy; Putin
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22A2002001031%22.

本論文之研究目的在於探討1992-2000年期間俄羅斯政經環境對台俄經貿關係之影響。台灣與俄羅斯的貿易自1992年開始，貿易量雖有起伏，但大體來說仍可謂是正成長。然而，當俄羅斯開始走向市場經濟路線、施行震盪療法，經濟轉型不如預期中的順利，再加上金融風暴的發生，導致俄羅斯經濟一蹶不振。到1998年時，由於受到盧布大幅貶值，造成我國部分業者無法收到貨款或訂單被取消，使得業者暫停對俄貿易而改採觀望的態度，台俄貿易量也為之遽減。由此我們發現，俄羅斯政經狀況對台俄經貿關係有相當程度的影響。本論文認為俄羅斯的政治環境與經濟情勢是影響台俄經貿之主因；而由於當前俄羅斯的政經情勢逐漸轉好，因此可以預期未來的台俄經貿情況將會漸至佳境。此一假設命題可再引申為下列邏輯相關的子命題： （一）俄羅斯的政治環境對台俄經貿關係的影響有正、負兩方面 1. 俄羅斯的國內政治環境與對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 2. 中俄關係對台俄經貿關係的影響為負相關 （二）俄羅斯的經濟情勢對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 1. 俄羅斯的經濟改革對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 2. 俄羅斯的經濟體質對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 3. 俄羅斯的銀行體系對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 （三）根據H-O定理，台俄經貿仍有相當大的發展空間。加上普欽執政後，俄羅斯政經情勢逐漸改善，因此可以預期未來的台俄經貿情況必然會漸至佳境。 上述的三個子命題，構成本論文的核心論點；而對應此三個論點，本論文將分六章探討。第一章為緒論，說明研究動機與研究目的、文獻述評與研究方法、假設命題與研究架構。第二章：台俄經貿之開展及商品結構。此章分為兩節：分別為台俄經貿之開始與推展及台俄貿易之商品結構。第三章：俄羅斯之政治環境對台俄經貿關係的影響。此章分為三節：分別為俄羅斯國內政治環境對台俄經貿關係的影響、中俄關係對台俄經貿關係的影響及小結。第四章：俄羅斯之經濟情勢對台俄經貿關係的影響。本章將先說明俄羅斯的經濟改革，再從俄羅斯的經濟體質及銀行體系兩方面，探討俄羅斯之經濟環境對台俄經貿關係的影響。第五章：台俄經貿的未來走向。本章將依據三、四章之討論結果，對台俄經貿的未來走向做預測。本章分為三節：普欽執政後的政治環境、普欽執政後的經濟情勢及小結。第六章：結論。總結整個論文之重點及研究之結果。 === This thesis is to discuss the influence of Russian Political and economic environment to Taiwan-Russia economy and trade during the period of 1992-2000. Taiwan-Russia trade has started since 1992. Roughly speaking, the amount of the trade was growing. However, when Russia started to change their economic strategy, and carried out the shock therapy, the route of economic reform was not as smooth as expected. The outbreak of financial crisis leaded to the crash of Russia economy. In 1998, some Taiwanese businessmen couldn’t receive payment of goods or the orders were canceled because of the evaluation of ruble. It has made those businessmen change their attitude and stop trading with their Russian counterparts. The amount of Taiwan-Russia trade became decreasing. According to this reason, we found that Russia political and economic situations have great impact upon Taiwan-Russian economic and trade relationship. This dissertation is taking the position that Russian political environments and Russia economic situations are the main reason which influent the economy and trade relation between Taiwan and Russia’s economy and trade relation between Taiwan and Russia. The present Russia political and economic situations are getting better, so we can forecast that Taiwan-Russia economic and trade situation will be better and better in the future. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following three logically intertwined propositions： (一) The impact of Russian political environments upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship has both positive and negative sides. 1. The impact of Russian domestic political environments upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. 2. The impact of China-Russia relation upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is negative. (二) The impact of Russian economic situation upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. 1. The impact of Russian economic reform upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. 2. The impact of Russian economic construction upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. 3. The impact of Russian banking system upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. (三) According to H-O therapy, the economy and trade between Taiwan and Russia still have large potential. After Putin took power, the Russia political and economic situation gets better. Therefore, we can forecast that Taiwan-Russia economic and trade situation will be better and better in the future. These three interwoven propositions above constitute the core points of this thesis. In accordance with these points, this thesis will be discussed in six chapters. Chapter 1 is introduction, it will explain the motivation, purpose, method, hypothesis and framework of this study. Chapter 2：The start and goods structure of Taiwan-Russia economic and trade. This chapter has two sections, they are the start of Taiwan-Russia economy and trade and the structure of Taiwan-Russia economic and trade. Chapter 3：The impact of Russian political environment to Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relation. This chapter has three sections, including the impact of Russian domestic political environment upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship, the impact of China-Russia relation upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship, and the initial conclusion. Chapter 4：The impact of Russian economic situation upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship. In this chapter, first we explain the Russian economic reform. Then we discuss Taiwan-Russia economic and trade relation through the aspects of Russian economic construction and the Russian banking system. Chapter 5：The trend of Taiwan-Russia economic and trade relation in the future. This chapter will make a forecast to the trend of Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relation. This chapter has three sections, including the political environment after Putin took power, the economic situation after Putin took power, and the initial conclusion. Chapter 6：Conclusion.