中國大陸城鎮勞動力失業問題之經濟分析

• Main Authors: 黃志強, Huang, Chih-Chiang
• Language: 中文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 中國大陸; 城鎮; 勞動力; 人力資源; 失業; 隱性失業; 再就業; Mainland China; Urban; Labor Force; Human Resource; Unemployment; Disguised Unemployment; Re-employment
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22A2002001781%22.

本論文主要在探討現階段（1979年改革開放後）大陸城鎮地區勞動力失業問題，包括城鎮人力資源、公開性失業、下崗職工、冗員、隱性失業、勞動力低度運用問題，以及這些問題造成人力閑置、國民經濟損失之經濟分析。 人力資源是經濟發展過程中最重要的因素。充分開發利用人力資源，不僅是社會經濟的需要，也是勞動者自身生存和發展的需要。大陸城鎮人力資源呈穩定增長趨勢，就業人口到1998年末達到20,678萬人，占總就業人口29.6%。按人力資源充分開發利用的要求來看，在大陸城鎮地區還有相當的差距。主要表現在人力資源事實上存在一定的閑置。分為兩個方面來談： 一是城鎮存在大批失業人口。1992年以來大陸城鎮的登記失業人口一直保持上升趨勢，1998年登記失業人口為571萬人，登記失業率為3.1%。另外，按1995年1%人口抽樣調查資料計算結果， 1998年調查失業人口（其中包括從未工作和失去工作正尋找工作者）為1,145萬人，調查失業率為6.2%，相當於登記失業率的2倍。若再將下崗職工併入計算，則1998年城鎮真實失業人口測算為1,528萬人，真實失業率為6.9%。 其二是城鎮勞動力有相當部份是處於不充分就業（隱性失業）狀態。包括了企業等單位之冗員（富餘人員）、被迫（破產、停產）下崗職工、提前退休職工。據測算，目前大陸城鎮企業—主要是國有企業，隱性失業人口為3,207萬人，隱性失業率為15.1%。 綜上所述，失業造成人力資源的閑置（包括公開失業及隱性失業）達到了3,778萬人，人力閑置率為17.8%。另外，透過Okun’s law，可算出1998年真實失業率6.9%之下導致國民生產（GDP）的損失比重最高達到13%。失業問題可說是帶給中共當局及人民帶來極大的經濟負擔。 近年來，中共積極推動「再就業工程」政策，試圖照顧及安置失業和下崗職工再就業，實施以來，雖獲得相當之效果。不過，在執行過程中，由於存在來自政策、資金、社會及職工本身的許多障礙，使得效果大打折扣。基於此，提出擴大勞動力需求量、降低勞動力供給與健全勞動力市場三種途徑，配合社會保障制度之完善來解決大陸城鎮失業問題。 大陸政經環境變化一向牽動兩岸經貿的發展，蓋勞動面的因素（就業政策、工資結構和勞資糾紛秩序）更是台商投資大陸的關鍵動機，牽涉我國對兩岸互動政策的規劃。值此兩岸經貿愈趨頻繁之際，熟悉大陸城鎮勞動力就業現況與趨勢，乃是極為重要的課題之一。 === This essay is related to research the unemployment of labor force in urban areas of Mainland China after the reform in 1979. It includes urban’s labor resources, open unemployment, laid-off workers, supernumerary, disguised unemployment, labor utilized inadequately problems, and idleness as well as the economic analysis of GDP loss caused by these above problems. Human resource is the most important factor in economic developing process. Sufficiently utilizing human resource is not only the demand of social economy, but also that of labors’ existence and development. Human resource in urban areas of Mainland China is the steady rising trend so that the number of employed population archived 206,780,000 till the end of 1998, 29.6 percent of the total employed population. According to the request of sufficiently utilizing human resource, it is a quite gap, the existence of idleness in human resource, in urban areas of Mainland China. There are two main points detailed below: First, there are most unemployed population occurred in urban areas. From 1992, the registered unemployed people in urban areas still remain the rising trend. For example, the number of the registered unemployed people is 5,710,000 as well as the rate of the registered unemployed people is 3.1 percent in 1998. In addition, based on the outcome of the random sampling of one percent of people in 1995, the examined unemployed people in 1998 is 6.2 percent, equaled to twice of the registered unemployed rate. Thus, if calculated with laid-off workers, the number of the real unemployed population in urban areas in 1998 is approximately 15,280,000 and the real unemployment rate is 6.9 percent around. Secondly, there are fairly disguised unemployment happened in urban’s labor, included supernumerary, laid-off workers, and prematurely retired workers in enterprises. According to measure corporations in urban corporation of Mainland China, most is state-owned enterprise; the disguised unemployment is 32,070,000; the disguised unemployment rate is 15.1 percent. To summarize, the amount of the idleness of human resource caused by unemployment, included open and disguised ones, archives 37,780,000 and the rate of labor resources idleness is 17.8 percent. Moreover, the rate of GDP loss reached 13 percent under the real unemployed rate, 6.9 percent, in 1998 calculated by Okun’s law. Hence, the unemployed question brings the huge economic load for people and state of Mainland China. Recently, the state of Mainland China aggressively pushes “re-employment engineering“ policy. It tries to care and settle the unemployment and laid-off workers to re-employ in enterprise. Since accomplishing this policy, the outcome doesn’t very outstand obviously although it got some effects in fact, because there are many obstructions from policy, capital, society, and labors’ selves during the performing process. Consequently, this essay provides three ways, the expanding labor demand, the lowering labor supply, and establish labor market, to mach the social security system in order to perfectly solve the unemployed questions in urban areas of Mainland China. Any change of politic and economic environment must bring the development of cross-strait economy. Further, the factors from labor sides, such as the employed policy, the wage structure, and the strife discipline of labor relation, are main incentives of Formosan businessmen to invest in Mainland China since they are related to the cross-strait plan from Formosa to Mainland China. Thence, it’s one of the most courses to acquaint the current and trend of employed labors in urban areas of Mainland China upon the frequent cross-strait economy.