檢視”預測”在巴斯夫公司管理流程中之應用

• Main Authors: 莊馥銘, Chuang, Sandy
• Language: 英文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 預測
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0090933012%22.

檢視”預測”在巴斯夫公司管理流程中之應用 === ABSTRACT As the competition in today’s markets for products and services becoming more and more intense, it is imperative for companies to improve their attempts to plan for the future (Smith & McIntyre, 1994). Literature reviews have shown clear linkage between forecast accuracy and the company’s bottom line. Improving the accuracy and timeliness of internal forecasts increases revenue predictability and operating margins, which are keys in today’s volatile economy. BASF is a chemical company founded in Germany in 1865. “Earn a premium on the cost of capital” is one of the four strategic guidelines of BASF 2015. Reliable forecast is one of the critical value drivers supporting the strategic guidelines. Effective forecasting creates value through resource optimization, inventory reduction and ultimately increase profits and directly impacting financial results. The paper uses the results of interviews and questionnaires conducted by a project team within BASF as the basis for analysis. Though it is not an official forecasting audit, similar approach was undertaken. Forecasting as it is used in BASF is reviewed. The findings of interviews and surveys conducted are summarized. The before and after status of forecasting in BASF are examined for comparison. Forecasting is an integrated system of tools, people factors and processes. From the analysis, it is found that making more investment in tools does not necessary improve forecasting performance unless the people factors are addressed and comprehensive standard operating practices (SOPs) are adopted. Usage of forecasts is as important as the generation of forecasts. Sales team involvement and increased collaboration in the generation of forecast helped as leverage for better forecasting. In addition, forecast accuracy as performance measures emphasizes task ownership and encourages better performance. Though various forecasts are performed in business operations, ranging from economic trend, interest and exchange rates, raw material and commodity prices, production capacity, product requirements to the company’s bottom line, but some are better forecasted centrally or globally, some regionally and some locally. There is no definite conclusion as to whether decentralized or centralized forecasts are better than the other as it is dependent on the specific forecast and its usage. With the merger and acquisitions activities often undertaken by companies, forecast management is an even more important task to maintain the customers and grow the sales during and after the integration of these businesses throughout the world. Regular forecasting audits should to be conducted and corrective measures be monitored for sustainable improvements.