台灣失業率與犯罪關係之初探—不同模型之比較

• Main Author: 魏大耕
• Language: 英文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 失業; 犯罪經濟; 機會效果; 動機效果; 無母數方法; 時間序列; 景氣循環; unemployment; economic crime; opportunity effect; motivation effect; nonparametric method; time series; business cycle
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0094351020%22.

在過去研究犯罪經濟學的理論文獻上，失業率對各犯罪類型的影響為正向關係，但在實証文獻上的研究發現，卻有愈來愈多的証據支持此二個變數間的負向或無關係。為了解釋上述正向與負向間相反的矛盾關係，本篇論文嘗試利用兩種模型(非參數與非參數模型)與兩種效果(機會效果與動機效果)來解釋此二變數間的關係，此亦是本論文主要貢獻。其中機會效果是用以解釋失業率與犯罪間的負向關係，動機效果則用以解釋正向關係。在非參數模型中，利用失業率為景氣循環的代理變數，發現失業率與竊盜間存在正向關係，此與大多實証研究相符；失業率則和妨害風化與殺人犯罪間呈現負向相關；失業率與傷害罪間則沒有明顯正負關係。研究亦顯示，不同的犯罪類型在不同的參數模型下，統計的顯著性亦有不同，而在不同年齡層(青少年與成年人)的犯罪模型則更與理論模型結論相符。 === According to the theoretical literature on criminal economics, unemployment rate tends to be positively correlated to all types of crimes. However, more and more empirical evidence suggests otherwise. In order to clarify the relationship, this study exploits both nonparametric and parametric models and considers two effects, including opportunity and motivation effects. The presence of the opportunity effect leads to be a negative correlation between unemployment rate and crimes, while the presence of the motivation effect gives a positive correlation. Under nonparametric model where unemployment rate is used as a proxy for business cycles, we only found that there is positive correlation between unemployment rate and robbery, while obscenity and homicide are found to be negatively correlated with unemployment rate. This is in line with most empirical studies. Little correlation evidence is found for unemployment and other types of crimes. Under parametric model, the study indicates that the statistical significance differs in models, and depends on crime variable used. We found more consistent results with theoretic models for the age groups (teenagers and adults).