| Summary: | 目前超低生育率現象，已對整體社會的走向、國家經濟的發展、生活思維的方式等都產生了相當大的影響。換言之，生育不僅是婦女本身的問題，它與國際社會的動態、經濟的全球化、企業的國際化、現代的子女教育、社會的性別教育、老年人的護理等都有著相當緊密的關係。因此，本研究的主要目的，在於探討臺灣各縣市房地產價格對生育率的影響，並瞭解臺灣生育率持續下降的癥結所在，找出可能影響生育率下降的主要因素加以分析。
本文利用臺灣23個縣市別的追蹤資料，涵蓋期間為2000年至2008年，採雙因子固定效果模型進行實證分析。估計結果發現，在控制其他變數不變之下，在生育率遞延二期時，臺灣各縣市平均地價對生育率為負影響，且在生育率遞延三期時更為顯著，兩者之間的資源排擠效果更為強大。而其他影響臺灣生育率的主要因素，如：各縣市農業人口比例、各縣市粗結婚率、與外國人結婚人數比例皆呈顯著正影響；臺灣各縣市平均地價、原住民人數比例及婦女勞動參與率皆呈顯著負影響。
依本研究結果顯示，房地產價格是影響臺灣生育率相當重要的因素，政府應需高度正視此問題並有所作為。建議未來政府在訂定國家發展政策時，除需研擬更多提升生育率的策略，如：降低父母生育子女的機會成本、改善學前幼托體系，以及加強減輕家庭育兒壓力的宣導工作等，並可增加控制「臺灣房地產價格」及避免房價炒作之策略，以促進國家永續發展及增強國際競爭力。
=== The current low fertility rate has been a great impact on our entire social trend, the development of national economy, and the way we think. That is, fertility is not only women’s consideration, but also an issue connected closely to international society, economical globalization, internationalization of business, children education, sex education, and nursing care of the elders. As a result, the main purpose of this paper lies on the effect of average land price on fertility rate in Taiwan.
This article uses the panel data of the 23 counties and cities of Taiwan from 2000 to 2008, and does the evidence-based analysis by two-factor fixed-effects model. We found that the average land price has conspicuously positive effect on the fertility rate in Taiwan. While other main factors affect the fertility rate in Taiwan such as the proportion of farm-workers, crude marriage rate, and the proportion of marriage with the foreigners have conspicuously positive effects on it; on the other hand, female labor force participation and the proportion of aborigine have conspicuously negative effects on it.
According to our study, average land price is the most important factor which affects the fertility rate in Taiwan, and the government should face the problem and do something to it. When making policy, it is suggested the government may take into consideration of how to control the housing price in Taiwan and avoid housing price speculation.
|
|---|
