油料避險對公司價值和分析師預測正確性的影響：全球航空產業的實證

• Main Authors: 林瑞椒, Lin, Rueyjiau
• Language: 英文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 油料避險; 航空產業; 避險誘因; 風險曝露; 分析師盈餘預測; Jet fuel hedging; Airline industry; Incentives for hedging; Risk Exposure; Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G0923575011%22.

本論文分為兩部分，第一部份是探討全球航空產業的油料避險會不會對公司價值有所影響，以及油料避險的誘因。第二部份則是檢視全球航空公司的風險曝露會不會影響分析師的預測誤差，尤其是燃油價格變動的風險曝露。 === In the first essay, we examine whether jet fuel hedging increases the market value of airline companies around the world. Using a sample of 70 airline companies from 32 countries over the period 1995 to 2005, we find that jet fuel hedging is not significantly positively related to their firm value in the global airlines, but this positive relationship holds in the various sub-samples and is significant for US and non-alliance firms. Moreover, our results show that the risk-taking behavior of executives and the tendency to avoid financial distress are important determinants for the jet fuel hedging activities of non-US airline companies. Alleviating the problem of underinvestment is also an important factor to explain the jet fuel hedging activities of US and non-alliance firms. Our results add support to the growing body of literature which finds that hedging increases firm value for global airline companies. In the second essay, we examine the extent analysts revise their earnings forecasts in response to oil price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate shocks they have observed during the year, and whether these revisions contain additional information about how current and past price shocks affect reported earnings, using the sample of the global airline industry. Empirical results indicate that jet fuel hedging can increase analysts’ forecast revisions in the total sample, and in the sub-sample of the volatile fuel price period. These results can also be seen in US and non-US airlines, and airlines with both strong and weak governance. Overall, our results show that oil price shocks play an important role in investor and analyst information uncertainty with regard to the global airline industry. Consequently, corporate risk disclosures only provide limited information about firms’ financial risk exposures. Two essays are comprised in this dussertation to examine whether jet fuel hedging has effects on firm value and analysts’ forecast accuracy in the global airline industry. Using global data allows us to cmpare the differences of jet fuel hedging behavior and incentives for hedging across different sub-samples. Furthermore, we also examine how jet fuel hedging affects analysts’ forecast erros across different sub-samples and its implications for firm disclosures about their risk exposures in the financial reports. In the first essay, we examine whether jet fuel hedging increases the market value of airline companies around the world. Using a sample of 70 airline companies from 32 countries over the period 1995 to 2005, we find that jet fuel hedging is not significantly positively related to their firm value in the global airlines, but this positive relationship holds in the various sub-samples and is significant for US and non-alliance firms. Moreover, our results show that the risk-taking behavior of executives and the tendency to avoid financial distress are important determinants for the jet fuel hedging activities of non-US airline companies. Alleviating the problem of underinvestment is also an important factor to explain the jet fuel hedging activities of US and non-alliance firms. Our results add support to the growing body of literature which finds that hedging increases firm value for global airline companies. In the second essay, we examine the extent analysts revise their earnings forecasts in response to oil price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate shocks they have observed during the year, and whether these revisions contain additional information about how current and past price shocks affect reported earnings, using the sample of the global airline industry. Empirical results indicate that jet fuel hedging can increase analysts’ forecast revisions in the total sample, and in the sub-sample of the volatile fuel price period. These results can also be seen in US and non-US airlines, and airlines with both strong and weak governance. Overall, our results show that oil price shocks play an important role in investor and analyst information uncertainty with regard to the global airline industry. Consequently, corporate risk disclosures only provide limited information about firms’ financial risk exposures.