新台幣與均一定價理論背離: 台幣實質與名目匯率差異的成因

• Main Authors: 施安德, Springer, Andreas
• Language: 英文
• Published: 國立政治大學
• Subjects: 新台幣; 匯率; PPP; 經濟一體化; 價位; New Taiwan Dollar; Exchange Rate; Economic Integration; Price Level
• Online Access: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/cdrfb3/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&i=sid=%22G1029260321%22.

台灣的國內生產毛額及薪資在過去十幾年來相當的穩定,但是生活水準卻仍然一直提升。這種矛盾現象來自於新台幣的名目跟實質匯率背離,在先進國家裡面是相當罕見的。本論文研究了台灣與國際經濟的整合、貨幣政策、政治局勢以及收支平衡帳等因素,並了解他們跟此矛盾之間的潛在因果關係。由於台灣未能充分參與最近一波的全球化浪潮,使得它的價格體系跟國際水準脫勾。而對外投資、外匯累積,以及傳統商業跟文化結構等因素,共同創造了現有獨特的低物價水準環境。為了防止這種長期的價格扭曲影響,台灣的國際政治情勢必須改善,或至少跟經濟行為能力分離。唯有如此,台灣的經濟情況才能恢復正常,讓實質跟名目匯率的差距縮小,(以美金計價的)名目國內生產總值和工資也才能成長。 === Taiwan’s GDP and wages have remained steady for more than a decade, though the living standard continued to rise. This paradox is induced by the New Taiwan Dollar’s nominal and real exchange rates diverging, an anomaly amongst advanced economies. Investigating ongoing international economic integration, Taiwan’s monetary policy, political situation, and balance of payments unveils the underlying causality. Taiwan could not participate in the most recent wave of globalisation, insulating its price level. In combination with outgoing investments, reserves accumulation, and its traditional business culture and structure, this has created an area of inimitable low prices. In order to prevent distortionary long-term effects, Taiwan’s political situation needs to either be resolved, or separated from its economic capacity to act. Only then can Taiwan’s economic situation normalise and the real/nominal exchange rate spread fade, which implies an increase in nominal GDP and wages (measured in USD).