Evaluating NFL Player Performance and Draft Efficiency: Where is the Best Value in the NFL Draft?

• Main Author: Lee, Justin
• Format: Others
• Published: Scholarship @ Claremont 2018
• Subjects: NFL; NFL Draft; Draft; Sports Economics; Football; Other Economics; Sports Studies
• Online Access: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1740; http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2877&context=cmc_theses

This paper uses empirical analysis to value of each section of the NFL Draft relative to the others in order to establish which NFL draft picks are undervalued. We crafted a new performance metric that uses the size of a given draftee’s second contract relative to his peers to evaluate his performance over the course of his previous contract. Using two OLS regressions, we predict the level of performance, given by our metric score, for each section of the draft. We then use the residuals from these regressions to investigate which sections of the draft are undervalued. The results show that mid-3rd round picks and late 5th round picks are the best value per dollar in the draft.