Transport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south east
In Britain, and in the other major industrialised countries, a significant redistribution of urban population is taking place. Metropolitan.conurbations are losing population and employment to the surrounding regions, resulting in the rise to urban status of many smaller freestanding towns, and the...
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ndltd-CRANFIELD1-oai-dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk-1826-102692016-08-13T03:27:45ZTransport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south eastVaraprasad, NIn Britain, and in the other major industrialised countries, a significant redistribution of urban population is taking place. Metropolitan.conurbations are losing population and employment to the surrounding regions, resulting in the rise to urban status of many smaller freestanding towns, and the decline of inner city areas as dominant centres of employment and population. This 'postsuburbanisation' phase of urban development has given rise to the expansion of the metropolitan hinterland, with long commuting distances, while simultaneously the cities are no longer performing their traditional role as attractors and 'seed-beds' of new jobs. The availability of played a major part process. Transport of the metropolitan central role of the of transport has in recent years been icance-by the_rising cost of energy cost of transportaccompanied by the redistribution of jobs within regions new patterns of urban development and relatively cheap transport has always in the population redistribution supply, while assisting the expansion labour market area, also weakens the conurbation. This balancing function given added significance. The resulting continuing could result in perhaps lead to,the reversal of present trends. Existing analytical methods are inappropriate for " exploring these dynamic and interactive processes. Conventional techniques are based on static frameworks;_ with highly disaggregated variables atfa fine spatial scale. Such methodologies do not reflect the interactive nature of urban processes, and they necessarily constrain the planner to a limited number of not widely different alternatives. This study is an attempt to shift the emphasis in urban modelling from the detailed description of structure to a broader description of the processes at work. This necessarily involves an explicitly dynamic modelling methodology, which is more appropriate to the description of rapid change. Two dynamic frameworks framework based on the using continuous time, framework based on the theory, using discrete calibrated for the decentralisation of increase in commuting that has taken place between 1961 and are developed: one is a theoretical logistic growth of an urban area, and the other is a modelling accounting mechanism of kinetic time. Both of these models are South-East, and describe the population from Greater London and the 1976. A range of urban policies involving transport pricing, job and housing supply are tested on these' models, and the resulting population distributions and ı commuting flows demonstrate .the usefulness to policy makers of such broad brushiprocess-descriptive models The theoretical and model1ing'frameWorks presented in this study can potentially be developed into methodol that are complementary to_existing comprehensive transportation - land use models, but at a strategic planning level.Cranfield UniversityCordey-Hayes, M.2016-08-11T08:31:21Z2016-08-11T08:31:21Z1979-07Thesis or dissertationDoctoralPhDhttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10269en© Cranfield University, 1979. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of the copyright holder. |
collection |
NDLTD |
language |
en |
sources |
NDLTD |
description |
In
Britain, and in the other major industrialised
countries, a significant redistribution of urban population
is
taking place. Metropolitan.conurbations are losing
population and employment to the
surrounding regions,
resulting in the rise to urban status of
many smaller freestanding
towns, and the decline of inner city areas as
dominant centres of
employment and population. This 'postsuburbanisation'
phase of urban development has given
rise to the
expansion of the metropolitan hinterland, with
long commuting distances, while simultaneously the cities
are no longer
performing their traditional role as
attractors and 'seed-beds' of new
jobs.
The
availability of
played a major part
process. Transport
of the
metropolitan
central role of the
of
transport has in recent years been
icance-by the_rising cost of energy
cost of transportaccompanied by the
redistribution of
jobs within regions
new patterns of urban development and
relatively cheap transport has always
in the
population redistribution
supply, while assisting the expansion
labour market
area, also weakens the
conurbation. This balancing function
given added significance.
The resulting
continuing
could result in
perhaps lead to,the
reversal of present trends.
Existing analytical methods are inappropriate for "
exploring these dynamic and interactive processes.
Conventional techniques are based on static frameworks;_
with highly disaggregated variables atfa fine spatial
scale. Such
methodologies do not reflect the interactive
nature of urban
processes, and they necessarily constrain
the
planner to a limited number of not widely different
alternatives.
This
study is an attempt to shift the emphasis in urban
modelling from the detailed description of structure to
a broader
description of the processes at work. This
necessarily involves an explicitly dynamic modelling
methodology, which is more appropriate to the description
of
rapid change.
Two
dynamic frameworks
framework based on the
using continuous time,
framework based on the
theory, using discrete
calibrated for the
decentralisation of
increase in
commuting that has taken place between 1961 and
are
developed: one is a theoretical
logistic growth of an urban area,
and the other is a
modelling
accounting mechanism of kinetic
time. Both of these models are
South-East, and describe the
population from Greater London and the
1976. A
range of urban policies involving transport
pricing, job and housing supply are tested on these'
models, and the resulting population distributions and
ı
commuting flows demonstrate .the usefulness to policy
makers of such
broad brushiprocess-descriptive models
The theoretical and
model1ing'frameWorks presented in
this study can potentially be developed into methodol
that are
complementary to_existing comprehensive
transportation - land use models, but at a strategic
planning level. |
author2 |
Cordey-Hayes, M. |
author_facet |
Cordey-Hayes, M. Varaprasad, N |
author |
Varaprasad, N |
spellingShingle |
Varaprasad, N Transport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south east |
author_sort |
Varaprasad, N |
title |
Transport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south east |
title_short |
Transport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south east |
title_full |
Transport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south east |
title_fullStr |
Transport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south east |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south east |
title_sort |
transport costs and the dynamics of population redistribution : two strategic models for the south east |
publisher |
Cranfield University |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10269 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT varaprasadn transportcostsandthedynamicsofpopulationredistributiontwostrategicmodelsforthesoutheast |
_version_ |
1718374921375055872 |