Looking in the Crystal Ball: Determinants of Excess Return

• Main Author: Akolly, Kokou S
• Format: Others
• Published: Digital Archive @ GSU 2010
• Subjects: Excess returns; Dividend payout ratio; Dividend yield; Book market value; Industry; fixed effects model; Random effects model.; Mathematics
• Online Access: http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/math_theses/87; http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1090&context=math_theses

This paper investigates the determinants of excess returns using dividend yields as a proxy in a cross-sectional setting. First, we find that types of industry and the current business cycle are determining factors of returns. Second, our results suggest that dividend yield serves a signaling mechanism indicating “healthiness” of a firm among prospective investors. Third we see that there is a positive relationship between dividend yield and risk, especially in the utility and financial sectors. And finally, using actual excess returns, instead of dividend yield in our model shows that all predictors of dividend yield were also significant predictors of excess returns. This connection between dividend yield and excess returns support our use of dividend yield as a proxy for excess returns.