Mecanismos intuitivo e racional e vieses comportamentais: evid?ncias para o Brasil

• Main Author: Gomes, Anna Cecilia Chaves
• Other Authors: 03040553607
• Language: Portuguese
• Published: PROGRAMA DE P?S-GRADUA??O EM ADMINISTRA??O 2017
• Subjects: CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO; Finan?as comportamentais; Heur?sticas; Vieses; Sistemas intuitivo e racional
• Online Access: https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/24127

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica ([e-mail]) on 2017-10-18T19:39:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AnnaCeciliaChavesGomes_TESE.pdf: 3722949 bytes, checksum: f643a898084ff61ec16969deea12d5e2 (MD5) === Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva ([e-mail]) on 2017-10-19T19:33:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 AnnaCeciliaChavesGomes_TESE.pdf: 3722949 bytes, checksum: f643a898084ff61ec16969deea12d5e2 (MD5) === Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-19T19:33:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AnnaCeciliaChavesGomes_TESE.pdf: 3722949 bytes, checksum: f643a898084ff61ec16969deea12d5e2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-09 === A proposi??o de que um processamento composto por dois sistemas - Intuitivo e Racional - ? respons?vel pelos processos cognitivos encontra in?meras refer?ncias na literatura. Cr?ticas recentes sugerem que o Sistema Intuitivo poderia ser composto por um Conjunto de Sistemas Aut?nomos (TASS) e o Racional por dois n?veis de controle: mentalidade algor?tmica e reflexiva. Embora exista significativa aceita??o da estrutura tripla por estudos da intelig?ncia artificial, a literatura atual converge para um processamento duplo, por isso ainda h? discuss?es acerca dos componentes da mente. Dado que os sistemas seriam respons?veis pela promo??o dos desvios sistem?ticos do racioc?nio normativo (vieses) e da avalia??o de atributos heur?sticos (heur?stica), tem-se que os estudos na ?rea podem auxiliar no entendimento da decis?o heur?stica, sendo necess?rios, assim, mais estudos, sobretudo emp?ricos, referentes ao assunto. Ante o exposto, o presente estudo trata de avaliar a arquitetura multivariada da domin?ncia dos sistemas cognitivos na gera??o de vieses comportamentais. Para tal, aplicou-se um question?rio feito com 2.958 participantes de 21 universidades p?blicas que mensurou a Heur?stica da Representatividade, Ancoramento, Heur?stica da Disponibilidade, Ilus?o de Controle, Avers?o ? Perda, Excesso de Confian?a, Otimismo, Efeito Dota??o, Heur?stica do Afeto, Fal?cia da Conjun??o, Efeito de Enquadramento, Contabilidade Mental, Efeito Disposi??o, Sistema Intuitivo e o Sistema Racional. As escalas foram validadas e analisadas por meio de uma An?lise Fatorial Confirmat?ria e, em seguida, foram aplicados a An?lise de Modelos de Equa??es Estruturais (SEM) e os testes de invari?ncia para subamostras dos diferentes g?neros, regi?es e ?reas de forma??o profissional. Dentre as escalas utilizadas, apenas a de Avers?o ? Perda n?o foi poss?vel de valida??o, provavelmente por ser considerada um recorte da original (demasiadamente grande para ser inclu?da). O Sistema Racional subdividiu-se em 2 fatores denominados de Algor?tmico e de Reflexivo, corroborando com estudos acerca de uma estrutura tripartida. Estruturas bidimensionais foram observadas no Otimismo e Efeito Disposi??o, de acordo com o observado em Bandeira et al. (2002) e Melo (2014) respectivamente. No que tange ? especifica??o do modelo estrutural, notou-se que o Excesso de Confian?a, Otimismo e Pessimismo resultam de uma mesma combina??o de sistemas, apresentando ind?cios de que esses poderiam de fato aparecerem em conjunto quando analisados empiricamente, conforme afirmado por Taylor e Brown (1988) e Barros e Silveira (2008). A Ancoragem estaria ocorrendo no que aparentaria ser um efeito de primming e a Contabilidade Mental mostrando-se ser parcialmente respons?vel por causar o Efeito Disposi??o, ambas as observa??es de acordo com a literatura da ?rea. J? a Fal?cia da Conjun??o, contrariamente ao esperado, n?o demonstrou relacionamento significativo com a Heur?stica da Representatividade, podendo esse resultado se dever ao instrumento, que mede a fal?cia, ser composto por quest?es demasiadamente tratadas na atualidade, assim, proporcionando que a Disponibilidade regesse predominantemente o vi?s. A SEM comprovou a influ?ncia dos sistemas racionais na Heur?stica do Afeto e Efeito Dota??o, em conson?ncia com Kahneman (2012). Por fim, ao se testar a invari?ncia, tem-se em todos os casos a rejei??o da hip?tese de invari?ncia, comprovando que os aspectos cognitivos apresentam forte subjetividade individual e ressaltam a import?ncia do perfil para o entendimento da domin?ncia dos sistemas. === The proposition that a processing composed of two systems - Intuitive and Rational - is responsible for the cognitive processes finds numerous references in the literature. Recent reviews suggest that the Intuitive System could be composed of a Set of Autonomous Systems (TASS) and the Rational by two levels of control: algorithmic and reflexive mentality. Although there is significant acceptance of the triple structure by artificial intelligence studies, current literature converges to dual processing, so there are still discussions about the components of the mind. Given that the systems would be responsible for promoting systematic deviations of normative reasoning (biases) and evaluation of heuristic attributes (heuristics), it has to be that the studies in the area can help in the understanding of the heuristic decision, therefore, more studies are needed, especially empirical ones, referring to the subject. Given the above, the present study treat to evaluate the multivariate architecture of the dominance of cognitive systems in the generation of behavioral biases. For this, a questionnaire was done with 2,958 participants from 21 public universities that measured the Representativity Heuristic, Anchoring, Availability Heuristic, Illusion of Control, Loss Aversion, Overconfidence, Optimism, Endowment Effect, Affect Heuristic, Conjunction Fallacy, Framing Effect, Mental Accounting, Disposition Effect, Intuitive System, and the Rational System. The scales were validated and analyzed by a Confirmatory Factor Analysis and then applied to the Structural Equation Model (SEM) and the invariance tests for sub-samples of the different genres, regions and professional qualification areas. Among the scales used, only Loss Aversion was not validated, probably because it was considered a clipping of the original (too large to be included). The Rational System was subdivided into 2 factors called Algorithmic and Reflexive, corroborating with studies about a tripartite structure. Two-dimensional structures were observed in the Optimism and Disposition Effect, according to what was observed in Bandeira et al. (2002) and Melo (2014), respectively. Concerning the specification of the structural model, it was noted that the Overconfidence, Optimism and Pessimism result from the same combination of systems, presenting indications that these could indeed appear together when analyzed empirically, as stated by Taylor and Brown (1988) and Barros and Silveira (2008). Anchoring would be occurring in what would appear to be a primming effect and the Mental Accounting showing to be partially responsible for causing the Disposition Effect, both observations according to the literature of the area. On the other hand, the Fallacy of the Conjunction, contrary to what was expected, did not demonstrate a significant relationship with the Heuristic of Representation, and this result may be due to the instrument, that measured the fallacy, be composed of issues that are heavily treated in the present day, thus allowing Availability to predominantly govern the bias. The SEM proved the influence of rational systems on the Affect Heuristic and Endowment Effect, in consonance with Kahneman (2012). Finally, when testing the invariance, it has been that, in all cases the rejection of the invariance hypothesis, proving that the cognitive aspects present a strong individual subjectivity and emphasize the importance of the profile for the understanding of the dominance of the systems.