Betting on the Unexpected: The Effect of Expectation Matching on Choice Strategies in a Binary Choice Task
Probability matching is the tendency to predict outcomes in accordance with their actual contingencies in a binary choice task. It is, however, a suboptimal response if the aim is to maximize correct predictions. I review two theories that attempt to explain why probability matching occurs: the pa...
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ndltd-LACETR-oai-collectionscanada.gc.ca-OWTU.10012-65582013-10-04T04:11:22ZJames, Greta2012-02-17T19:47:25Z2012-02-17T19:47:25Z2012-02-17T19:47:25Z2012http://hdl.handle.net/10012/6558Probability matching is the tendency to predict outcomes in accordance with their actual contingencies in a binary choice task. It is, however, a suboptimal response if the aim is to maximize correct predictions. I review two theories that attempt to explain why probability matching occurs: the pattern-search hypothesis and dual-systems theory. These theories are tested in two studies which suggest that dual-systems theory provides a better account of probability matching behavior. Studies 3, 4, and 5 then provide evidence for an extension of the dual-systems theory, called expectation matching, which is intended to explain why probability matching is the intuitive response to a binary choice problem.enProbability MatchingBinary Choice TaskBetting on the Unexpected: The Effect of Expectation Matching on Choice Strategies in a Binary Choice TaskThesis or DissertationPsychologyMaster of ArtsPsychology |
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en |
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Probability Matching Binary Choice Task Psychology |
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Probability Matching Binary Choice Task Psychology James, Greta Betting on the Unexpected: The Effect of Expectation Matching on Choice Strategies in a Binary Choice Task |
description |
Probability matching is the tendency to predict outcomes in accordance with their actual contingencies in a binary choice task. It is, however, a suboptimal response if the aim is to maximize correct predictions. I review two theories that attempt to explain why probability matching occurs: the pattern-search hypothesis and dual-systems theory. These theories are tested in two studies which suggest that dual-systems theory provides a better account of probability matching behavior. Studies 3, 4, and 5 then provide evidence for an extension of the dual-systems theory, called expectation matching, which is intended to explain why probability matching is the intuitive response to a binary choice problem. |
author |
James, Greta |
author_facet |
James, Greta |
author_sort |
James, Greta |
title |
Betting on the Unexpected: The Effect of Expectation Matching on Choice Strategies in a Binary Choice Task |
title_short |
Betting on the Unexpected: The Effect of Expectation Matching on Choice Strategies in a Binary Choice Task |
title_full |
Betting on the Unexpected: The Effect of Expectation Matching on Choice Strategies in a Binary Choice Task |
title_fullStr |
Betting on the Unexpected: The Effect of Expectation Matching on Choice Strategies in a Binary Choice Task |
title_full_unstemmed |
Betting on the Unexpected: The Effect of Expectation Matching on Choice Strategies in a Binary Choice Task |
title_sort |
betting on the unexpected: the effect of expectation matching on choice strategies in a binary choice task |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10012/6558 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT jamesgreta bettingontheunexpectedtheeffectofexpectationmatchingonchoicestrategiesinabinarychoicetask |
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