A Study of Residential Construction Cycles of Taiwan ,1982-1991

• Main Authors: Sun,Li Ling, 孫麗玲
• Other Authors: Wang,Dah Lih
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1994
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/67741456543045091843

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 建築及都市計畫研究所 === 82 === " Cycle " is a series of events taking place in a regularly repeated order over time. Generally, the study of cycle is divided into two parts:one is to study the length of cycle ; the other is to explain the causes of cycle. There are two approaches to time series analysis which may be identified as "time domain approach" and " frequency domain approach" . Since, one of the objectives is to study cyclical movements rather than to forecast the trend, therefore, the second approach will be applied.Subsequently,an attempt in made to explain the cyclical movement. Since 1960, focues on the short cycle in residential construction, and that short- run variations in residential construction are due to the housing finance. As for this reason, the thesis proposes a theory for residential construction cycle of Taiwan, the model pays particular attention to monetary variables and the structure of the mortgage market. Taiwan is selected as the study area. The result form spectral analysis is highly significant ,and it indicates that the data cycle pattern. Next, based upon the theory of residential construction cycle and housing finance, regression results, the mortgage rate in previous quarter(RM_1) and the inflow of funds to savings(DEP) and residential construction starts in previous quarter(HS_1) can well explain residential construction in Taiwan , 1982-1991. Then the mortgage rate in previous quarter (RM_1) affects residential construction starts negatively, the inflow of funed to savings(HS_1) and residential construction starts in previous quarter(HS_1) affect residential construction starts positive.