| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣科技大學 === 工程技術研究所 === 83 === Real estate development projects are full of risks. To
assist project management in mitigating impacts of risks and
improving quality of decision making during different phases
of a real estate development project life cycle, this research
proposed a structured system approach that consists three
steps namely risk identification, risk analysis, and risk
treatment. Comprehensive interviews of experienced practi-
tioners in the field of real estate development are carried
out to identify potential risks that may encounter. A heck
list of these risks is provided. An influence diagramming
technique is then applied to assist project management in
constructing analytical models. Sensitivity tests are utilized
to pinpoint important variables. Decision tree analyses are
also applied to help management in comparing alternatives.
Both expected value and expected utility are computed for
comparison purposes. Strategies for mitigating impacts of
potential risks are proposed. Risk analyses for a real case in
Taipei Metropolitan Area are carried out to demonstrate
advantages using this structured system approach.
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