Consistent Conjectural Variations under Demand Uncertainty

• Main Authors: Hwa-Ming Doong, 董華明
• Other Authors: Biing-Shiunn Yang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1995
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/64700548653974032795

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 產業經濟研究所 === 83 === The model of consistent conjectural variations is discussed in the literature, for example, Breshnahan (1981), (1982), Kamien and Schwartz (1983), Tanaka (1985), Shaffer and Yann-Shwu Lin (1991). A conjectural variation by one about the other firm''s response is consistent if it is to the other firm''s actual response. Most literature accept presumption that each firm acts as if the environment non-stochastic. As a matter of fact, the environment is chastic. If firms face a fluctuating market demand,it interesting to explore how they should conjecture and compare with those findings of Perry(1982) and Lin(1991). We find that if the number of firms was fixed, the conjectural variation is greater than -1 in either profit firm labor-managed firm under demand uncertainty, and it exist and unique. That is, the market structure under demand uncertainty more collusive than competitive equilibrium in the result is in contrast to the one obtained by Perry(1982) Yann-Shwu Lin(1991). This consistent equilibrium under uncertainty is between competitive equilibrium and Cournot- equilibrium. However, if it allows free entry and exit in the run, we can show that, competitive conjecture is the consistent one for any demand, cost, and conjectural functions. Our result is a generalization of the finding Perry''s and Tanaka''s result.