戰力投資組合最適決策模型之建構

• Main Author: 盧漢中
• Other Authors: 孟東寧
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1996
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/91063708307714383986

博士 === 中正理工學院 === 國防科學研究所 === 84 === The conventional military force portfolio selection was determined by the simulation of war gaming (WG) method. In addition, owing to the future optimal force structure will be influenced by the subjective and uncertain disadvantageous factors (DF), namely, life cycle cost (LCC), logistic support (LS) and man power (MP), the force structure gradually appeared in the difficult operation and maintenance in a later time. Therefore, we consider that the future optimal force portfolio selection will be influenced by the subjective and uncertain DF. The purpose of this research is to make the force structure more reasonable in the transit from an old structure to a new one. The WG decision model is still a problem in dealing such subjective and uncertain factors. Consequently, we considered using fuzzy multiple attribute decision making together with mathematical programming to solve the problem. In this paper, we proposed a new algorithm for evaluating optimal force structure by Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Portfolio Selection Model (PSM). In fact, we used the Triangular Fuzzy Number (TFN) to build the judgement matrices through the pair-wise comparison technique. In order to estimate the fuzzy eigenvectors of these matrices, we utilized the quantification of fuzzy attributes, interval arithmetic, α-cut in conjunction with index of optimism γ. In this way, the disadvantageous weights of the different criteria and performance scores of the alternatives can be finally aggregated and compared. Therefore, the optimal force structure can be obtained by PSM. We utilized Integer Linear Programming (ILP) and Linear Programming (LP) respectively to design the mathematic model for PSM. By means of the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) of AHP, the results of the optimal solution Xi of LP can be realized from fractional values to integer ones. The results of ILP and LP are compared. As a meaningful and practical tool, the new algorithm is applied to naval combat ship development and selection issues.