| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 歐洲研究所 === 84 === The European currency crises from 1992 to 1993 have turned a
new page in the process of the European monetary integration
and have shadowed the success of the EMU. The results of the
study bring some hints to the complexity of the European
currency crisis. The short-term factor is the asymmetry shock
of Germany unification, which in the 90''s, seriously damaged
the progress of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) under the
insufficient economic convergence in EC member-countries.
Besides, numerous failures in the ratification of the TEU
brought some doubts to the future of EMU in the financial
market. The long-term factor is the structural problem of the
EMS causes the conflicts of the movement of capital, the
stability of exchange rate and the autonomy of central bank
under the single European market. Besides, the non realignment
of the ERM since 1987 occuring the nominal convergence making
the working of the ERM more fragile. According to the balance-
of-payments crisis theory, the tensions of the pound, the lira
and the peseta in 1992 are classified as the speculative crises
of ''fundamentals'' caused by an excessive inflation in a
country. While the crises of the French franc, the Belgian
franc and the Danish Krone in 1992 and 1993 are explained as
the ''self-fulfilling'' attacks caused by expected unsus-
tainability of the current monetary policies or irrational
expectations in the market.
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