Demand Forecasts for the Electriity Consumption in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Ho, M. S., 何明山
• Other Authors: Huang, C. L.
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1997
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47975382237591493788

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 電機工程研究所 === 85 === In this paper, by taking advantage of SAS/PC in statistics, we divide the demand of electricity consumption of Taiwan into light electricity consumption and power electricity consumption to predict the electricity consumption from 1995 to 2005. The forecast results show that light electricity consumption will increase from 36,612,757 MWH in 1995 to 78,687,125 MWH in 2005, and power electricity consumption will increase from 68,322,599 MWH in 1995 to 105,702,427 MWH in 2005. By comparing with the practical value in 1995, the forecast error are 0.466% and 0.884% respectively in light electricity consumption and power electricity consumption. This result shows that our approach is not only accurate but also suitable for diverse forecast studies. Concerning such a high growth of electricity consumption, we propose some suggestions about solving the problem of power shortage. First, build more power plants, such as the hydro power plant, the thermal power plant, and the nuclear power plant. Besides, the government authority should promote the load management, the use of cogeneration, and the liberalisation of power sector.