林素貞

• Main Author: 彭光正
• Other Authors: ---
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1997
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/85142325095925946121

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 環境工程與科學系 === 85 === 　　Basic industrial chemicals (BIC) is one the of fundamental upstream chemical groups in Taiwan. This study uses input-output analysis to identify the inter-industrial linkage, energy use, and air pollution characteristics of BIC. Secondly, it analyzes four air pollutants emission changes via the factor analysis process. Based on time series analysis theory, the future energy demand, production value and CO2 emission of BIC can be predicted. Furthermore, this study uses fuzzy goal programming to simulate several CO2 reduction scenarios, and to estimate CO2 reduction potentials by adjusting energy price and imposing carbon tax as CO2 reduction tools. The research drafts the considerations of efficient energy usage and air pollution reduction for both BIC cases and policy amendments, which may be valuable to relevant agencies for reaching a better balance of environment, energy resources and economic development. 　　The results indicate the sensibility of dispersion and the power of dispersion in BIC are both quite lower than 1, this means BIC is not one of the principal industries greatly contributing to Taiwan''s economy. For 1989, 1991 and 1994 the unit energy consumption, CO2 and SO2 unit emission per added value of BIC were the tops for all industries in Taiwan. BIC is a characteristically high-energy-intensity and high-pollutant-emission industry. Factor analysis results show the emissions of CO2, Nox and total particulate matters of BIC during 1981 to 1994 increased. Economic growth and energy intensity are the prominent factors for this increase, while the structure share and coefficients of selected air pollution are less significant as the decreasing effect factors. 　　Evaluating the CO2 emission reduction scenarios projected to the year 2010 indicates that for best reduction the policy maker should choose either the strategy of regulating energy mix prices which are proportional to energy mix consumption, or the strategy of imposing carbon tax similar to Finland. Conclusions are similar for 2020. 　　BIC in Taiwan needs more efforts directed toward energy savings and energy management schemes to regain more energy efficiency and to decrease air pollution emissions. It may also reduce CO2 emission and energy consumption effectively if the government simultaneously starts to offer energy saving program services and financial aid projects, to regulate energy pricing and to impose proper carbon tax in the near future.