| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 美國研究所 === 85 === In March 1996, the PRC increased its military threat to Taiwan
by initiating amissile test maneuver. This thesis adopts Graham
T. Allison''''s "rational actor''''smodel" in order to analyze U.S.
involvement in this political-military maneuver.According to
this model, a government will chose to act in a way that ensure
the lowest cost and highest return-benefit.The background of
this maneuver is a study portrait respecting a basic
confrontation between the PRC''''s Taiwan policy and the PRC''''s
pragmatic diplomacy,and the relationship of the US and the PRC
in the post-Cold War era. Beforeacting, the U.S. must determine
the PRC''''s motivations for this maneuver. Fromthis analysis, one
can infer that an imminent full-scare conflict was not the
motivation for this action. However, the rate of accident
happening raise. After understanding the PRC''''s possible motive,
the U.S. will according to its own national interest and the
past policy to assess the alternatives. Finally,the Clinton
administration decided to deploy two carriers, the Independent
andthe Nimit to defuse tensions.The U.S. response in sending
naval force prevent the possibility of an occuringinadvertent
war between the Taiwan Strait. The result of de-escalation
provethat the U.S. decision was successful. The action assure
that the U.S. still maintains the leadership role in East Asia.
Therefore, the U.S. government response exemplifies characters
of the "rational actor''''s model."
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