| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 會計學研究所 === 86 === This study aims to examine the relationship between an announcement of voluntary forecasts and credit transactions,including margin and short transactions .In general,an announcement of good news would attract investor to employ margin for a long position,and viceverse .Since only noisy trader can employ credit transaction in Taiwan, this study hypothesizes that investors would follow the announcement for making rational expectation The results of this study could help understand how noisy traders use a financial forecast. This study selects the samples occurred between 1995 and 1997 to test the established hypotheses.
The empirican results can be summarized as follows.
● If the announcement of voluntary forecast occurred prior to the release of quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, both good and bad news simultaneously cause an increase of margin and short transactions during this preiod. However, the magnitude of margin transactions is significantly higher than that of short transactions.
● If the announcement of voluntary forecast occurred subsequent to the release of quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, both good and bad news simultaneously cause an increase of margin and short transactions during this period; however, the magnitude of margin transaction is significantly higher than that of short transaction.
Since noisy traders are essentially information followers, their judgement significantly relates to functional efficienxy of informational intermediaries. These empirical results imply the function of inforrational intermediaries requires further improvement.
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