A Study of Performance Prediction and Forecast Error of Non-Operational Revolving Funds

• Main Author: 陳致文
• Other Authors: 劉立倫
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1998
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/28153416738985336527

碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 資源管理研究所 === 86 === This study use financial data of Non-Operational Revolving Funds(NRF) to predict their financial performance difference between actual operation surplus(deficit) and budget operation surplus(deficit). Data collected through 1982 to 1996 with totally 418 samples, We use LOGIT model to predict NRF performance differences and to investigate forecast errors. Results demonstrate that model''s predictability and its alarm function could provide as a practical inference for NRF management. The primary results collected as follows: 1.The correct rate of model construction period situated between 71.4% and 78.3%, type one error lies in between 7.32% and 20%. That results look good in comparison with the domestic and international study. 2.The financial rate of "contribution rate to national treasury" and "administration expense rate" appears more consistent each year, but that of "current assets to total assets ratio", "the internal reservation ratio" and "operation expenditure to operation income ratio", appears less inconsistent, above ratios could regard as an important reference target. 3.The result of model confirmation period demonstrate that type one error is lower than type two error. That means the predictability of lower performance group is better than higher performance group, the prediction rate of model A (LOGIT model with legal budget) achieve to 84.38%. That demonstrate an alarm function for lower performance funds and provide a practical reference.