| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 水利及海洋工程學系 === 87 === The daily probability rainfall of South Taiwan can be analyzed by using statistical methods. Hydrologic applications of statistical methods followed the growth of statistical theory. This study collected observed rainfall of fourteen stations,and applied traditional methods and two modified methods proposed by the author to compare the probability daily rainfall of above stations.
Based on the independence and stationaries of the data, statistical theory can be applied to estimate probability rainfall. There are some probability distributions we often used such as extreme value distribution, normal distribution, log-normal distribution, Pearson type Ⅲ distribution and log-Pearson type Ⅲ distribution. But which is the best one is not confirmed. Therefore, we often compare estimated value with observed record.
From frequency analysis, we know that when estimated probability rainfall is closer to the observed record the confidence is larger.
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