| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 大陸研究所 === 87 === This thesis models Kornai(1980/82) Economics of Shortage by constructing a general model of planned economic system, for the purpose of describing its operation at the macro level and explaining the source of instability for its economic development. Though based on “equilibrium” approach, this model uses the shortage signal in place of the price signal and reveals how the shortage signal directs the operation of economic system to achieve equilibrium.
This model explains how the degree of “normal shortage” is determined by equilibrium, which, by contract, was viewed by Kornai as exogenous. Playing the model, we cloud demonstrate that so called “great rise and great fall” instability of Mainland China’s economic development was not stemmed from the planned economic system itself, but caused mainly by improper policies intervention decided by her leader : given the targets of the government, i.e., holding normal the levels of output and shortage, and given the intervention instruments, i.e., “investment commitment” and “government expenditure”, we prove that the policy targets could be achieved successfully only under the “lean against the wind” type of interventions and by pairing the policy instruments investment commitment and government expenditure for the targets of normal output and normal shortage. Other type of interventions and/or policy pairing would lead the system into instability.
Analyzing the statistical data for the years 1953-77,we find that the type of intervention and policy pairing in the governor of Mainland China during that time usually were usually deviated from the right way suggested in the above. It explains why Mainland China’s economic development was so greatly unstable.
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