Grey Input-output model for Assessment of CO2 Mitigation Strategies in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Tzu-Chen Chang, 張子見
• Other Authors: Sue-Jane Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1999
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98026812440026985511

博士 === 國立成功大學 === 環境工程學系 === 88 === In this study we integrated the grey theory and econometric input-output model based on neoclassical economics to establish the grey econometric input-output model. The focuses of this model are mainly on forecasting the energy demand and CO2 emission trend of the target years (2010 and 2020), simulating and analyzing the CO2 reduction effect and the impacts on industrial economy of CO2 mitigation strategies, such as adjustment to energy supply structure, carbon/energy tax and reforming industrial structure. Results of modeling find that the grey modeling method demands less data input so that it can overcome data constraints of neoclassical econometric model, and also this model can reserve the stringent theoretical framework and the extensive analytical capability. The statistical significance of the coefficients is also improved. Results of simulations under CO2 reduction strategy indicate that expanding the use of LNG and nuclear power has certain effect on CO2 reduction. Moreover, its impacts on economy and relevant CO2 mitigation costs are relatively lower. However, the reduction effect is rather limited with solely adjustment to the energy supply structure, thus the implementation of carbon taxation needs to be taken into policy consideration. Results of this study indicate that, 1,582 to 3,887 NT dollar per tonne of carbon tax will be needed to achieve the 2020 mitigation target; and the average yearly economic growth rate will drop 0.089% to 1.231%. Although carbon taxation exerts certain impacts on industrial economy, the reduction costs of CO2 are apparently lower than compulsory reformation of industrial structure. Therefore, it is worthy for the relevant authorities to consider the carbon taxation system to be one of the major policy tools to promote energy conservation, and to improve the energy and industrial structure by price mechanisms with best economic efficiency.