加入WTO對台灣養豬產業影響之研究---使用系統動態觀點之實證研究

• Main Authors: Chao-Chung Tsai, 蔡朝宗
• Other Authors: Zhi-Sen Wu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2002
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/cr855m

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 高階管理碩士在職專班 === 88 === The prosperity of Taiwan’s pork industry in the last 20 years is attributed to government policy of protection. Some trading barriers keep exporter of pork in a very hard position. However, the trend of globalization finally drives the industry in a total different situation. In February 1998, the government agreed importation of American pork (Belly and Offal) as the down payment of Taiwan being a member of the WTO. The pork industry faces severe business competition from then. The goal of this study is to answer the following two questions come up in many people’s mind in the industry. The first question is how the pork industry will be influenced by WTO trading policy. The second question goes to how to adjust business policies to maintain a competitive advantage. To highlight the influence of pork importation, the study divides the history of pork industry into three periods. They are: from the application of membership of WTO to the down payment on 1 February, 1998, from the importation of down payment to 2001, and the period starting from as a member of WTO on 1 January, 2002. The study constructs diagrams of system dynamics of pork industry first. Then the model was test using historical data. Finally, five business operation conditions ware test to answer the above-mentioned second question. We conclude the study with following important conclusions: 1. The accession to WTO has imposed definite influence to the pork industry. 2. The number of pig farmers and the number of pigs raised in farms will reduced gradually until 2007 even under the restoration of exports. 3. The variation range of pork market price will be reduced and waving cycle of price will be short. The profit margin will be cut down but are still reasonable. The small farmers suffer high business risk. The study proposes some suggestions to the farmers and government. The farmers must redefine the business as Hi-tec. The movement can cerate more productivity and cost down. On the other hand, the government must do all efforts especially on quarantine and construct a strictly safe environment for animals raising.