| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立暨南國際大學 === 經濟學系 === 88 === Title of Thesis: Total Pages:53
The Early Warning System:Currency Crisis of East Asia
Graduate Institute of Economics , National Chi Nan University
Graduate Date : July , 1999/7/23
Name of Student : Hsuan-Hsuan Ho Adviser : Dr. Ming-Jang Weng
Abstract :
This thesis models an early warning system to exam the currency crises prevailed in East Asian countries for the past two years. We expect this early warning system can help us to monitor whether a country may be slipping into a situation that is likely to end up in a crisis . two models of early warning system are constructed and justified by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1997) noise-to-signal ratio. The construction of the early warning system is based on the empirical regularities observed in a sample of all the east Asia countries (except Hong Kong ) from 1990 to 1998 . According to the empirical studies, we end up with the following conclusions:
(1)The noise-to-signal ratio is quite low in our model. Hence, we have confidence to believe what will be recovered by the early warning system.
(2)According to table two(expect for the case of Singapore), a crisis can be detected with a warning signal 10 months before it really shows up for all East Asian countries. And for most countries, real exchange rates and real loans are good warning indicators.
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