| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 商學研究所 === 88 === THESIS ABSTRACT
Why the trend of stock market represents the so called "regularity" by Elliot? What is the structure of wave theory based on ? Elliot did not answer these questions while the wave theory was brought up , hence wave theory was always been cataloged to mystery and also does not conform to the spirit of science. In fact, wave theory is the conclusion of Elliot''s study result from American stock market trend in recent seventy to eighty years. It is a kind of theory without need to been proven by itself in nature. Wave theory simplifies motions of the stock price and it also implies the concept of fracture and self-similarity to illustrate entire stock market''s basic activity based on up five waves and down three waves in chaos theory.
The basic concept of wave theory is "wave within wave" and it also includes two kinds of idea : First, wave theory can be decomposed into unlimited inside the wave itself. Big wave can be decomposed into middle wave , middle wave can be decomposed into small wave and the small wave can be decomposed into tiny wave still . Second, any wave is only a portion of it''s upper level. It should be extended out to unlimited. The idea tells us that no matter which wave we are current in, we have to know what we are exactly are and what is our current position so that we may foresee the future.
The paper is to study Taiwan stock market trend for the past thirty-five years based on wave theory and it''s mathematical bases to find out what is the current position of Taiwan stock market in now so that we may do the forecast on the future Taiwan stock market.
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