| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣科技大學 === 工業管理系 === 88 === An important observation in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. The information transferred in the form of "orders" tends to be distorted and can misguide upstream members in their inventory and production decisions. The bullwhip effect can lead to tremendous inefficiencies：excessive inventory investment, poor customer service, lost revenues, misguided capacity plans, ineffective orderings, missed production schedules.
In this paper we have demonstrated that the causes of the phenomenon. And this study constructs two models：（1）use two different demand forecasting methods；（2）use three kinds of ordering policies. We have shown that the causes of bullwhip effect by our models. According to proposed models, managers may reasonably regulate demand forecasts and determine the suitable strategies for absorbing the uncertainty of demands. Today, supply chain management must reverse a traditionally adversarial relationship with using the rapid development and evolution in information technology, information sharing has to be timely and accurate. The supply chain management has received vertical integration and horizontal collaboration.
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