以實質選擇權法評估高科技產業股價

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 金融學系 === 89 === The valuation of high-growth companies has been a controversial subject both in the academic literature and financial press. Since high-tech companies have option-like characteristics and asymmetric payoffs, this paper attempts to apply real-options pricing model cr...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Chia-Fan Lin, 林家帆
Other Authors: Wei-Kuang Chen
Format: Others
Language:zh-TW
Published: 2001
Online Access:http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/07444605928969642479
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Summary:碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 金融學系 === 89 === The valuation of high-growth companies has been a controversial subject both in the academic literature and financial press. Since high-tech companies have option-like characteristics and asymmetric payoffs, this paper attempts to apply real-options pricing model created by Schwartz and Moon (2000) to get the rational price of high-tech companies and look for the key value-drivers. This paper focuses on valuing VIA Technologies, the world’s largest PC core logic chipset supplier with growing exposure to communications chips and microprocessors. After estimating the model parameters and solving the model by simulation, the model stock price for VIA Technologies is $346.54;moreover, market prices are getting close to the model price in the first quarter of 2001. Finally, I perform sensitivity analysis on the more critical parameters of the model, and find out four important parameters that have big effects on stock prices, including variable costs, horizon of the estimation, terminal value and speed of adjustment for the rate of growth process.