| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 風險管理與保險學系 === 89 === Three possible models of the P-L Insurers rating process are estimated and compared：1. Muitiple Discriminant Model, 2. Unordered Logistic Model, 3. Ordered Logistic Model. Each model is estimated for a sample of 327 American P-L insurance companies using the same 38 independent variables. The three estimated models are then employed to predict ratings for a holdout sample of 78 companies. The study analyzes 1993 through 1997 data for a sample of P-L insurers that acquired A.M.Best Financial strength ratings between December 31,1993, and December 31, 1997. Empirical evidence suggests that even when models with the same basic structure were compared, differences in estimation procedures resulted in quite different coefficient estimates and classifications. The muitiple discriminant model clearly outperformed the regression model, while the unordered logistic model was clearly superior to the ordered logistic model.
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