| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 運輸與倉儲營運系 === 90 === Freight transport plays an important role in economics development. However, the freight vehicle accidents are life threatening in many areas. So there have been innumerable studies on freight vehicle risk analysis. However, it is observed that attempts to calibrate reliable risk analysis models were hampered by three basic concerns: (1) Lack of accurate risk descriptions: previous accident studies were found to be devoid of complete risk implication. In many cases, risk was merely perceived as accident occurrences, rather than as the combination of accident occurrences and accident consequences by risk definition. (2) Lack of quantitative scenario comparisons: accident scenarios describe the circumstances where accidents occur. They are in general constituted by human, vehicle, road and weather factors. Previous studies on scenario analysis were mostly focused on one or two factors. Impacts of the varied scenarios have not been satisfactorily quantified. (3) Incompatible exposure information: exposure is vital but frequently unavailable for or incommensurate with the risk analysis designed. Previous studies indicated that incompatibility between continuous exposure information and categorical accident data, and the absence of comprehensive exposure information always obstructed the accident analysis. Exposure alternatives thus need to be explored.
Taking these concerns into account, this study aims to develop a quantitative risk model for scenario analysis of major freight vehicle accidents and conduct an empirical study of the issue in Taiwan. The empirical results indicate that accident rates and accident risks of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. The results could provide the government for safety regulations and the insurance for practices.
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