Drought Warning System and The Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Growth

• Main Authors: Chen, Chia-Ho, 陳嘉和
• Other Authors: Tung, Ching-Pin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2002
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/39553603815785523439

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 === 90 === Rice is the most important crop in Taiwan. The factors that influence rice production include climate, soil moisture, etc. Thus, it is important to reasonably assesse the realationships between rice production and climate change. There have been some rice models, such as the CERES-Rice model. However, many data are required to determine parameters for these models. When data are insufficient, the feasibility of applying these models is reduced or the uncertainty of simulation results is increased. The purpose of this study is to establish a simple model which is able to assess rice yields under different climatic conditions. Local physiological parameters were also estimated from field experiment. The model was verified by applying to simulate yields for Taiwan Agriculture Research Institute in Taichung. Then, the model was further applied to assess climate change impacts on rice potential yield in Kelong, Taichung, Chiayi, Ilan, and Kaohsiung in Taiwan. The drought warning system uses prediction of twelve weeks climate data to assess the variations of stream flow and agriculture water requirements. Drought warning system is expected to provide information to decision makers who can make up proper management strategies as early as possible. However, the development of the drought warning system is at the initial stage. Lots of modifications are expected in future study. When the drought warning system is finished, it would be able to make significant contribution to drought mitigation.