| Summary: | 碩士 === 長庚大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 91 === Abstract
Demand forecasting is one of the critical tasks embarking by the business operations management. Taiwan automobile industry, a capital and technology intensive business, has advanced to mature and stabilize stage that has seized a certain proportion of GDP. With its drive toward the development of the relative industries, the automobile industry does play a significant role on the whole economy.
Normally, the demand forecasting in the automobile industry has been embedded on the previous sales data and simply adopting an experiential philosophy as the forecast criterion. Nevertheless, to make the forecasting become objective, an adequate and effective sales forecasting model is necessary.
In this research, we performed an integral analysis on the domestic sales volumes for the top five automobile companies in Taiwan, based on the data collected between 1997 and 2002. We use the statistical methods, such as Exponential Smoothing and Multiple-Regression models to forecast their market shares. The results show that the Exponential Smoothing model is superior to other forecasting models, which also point out that Toyota will have the number one market share in near future. In this study, therefore, Exponential Smoothing model is recommended to the domestic automobile companies to make a more accurate forecast on the future sales volume.
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