The Relationships Between the Money Supply, Mutual Fund Flow, Trade Volumes, and Stock Index

• Main Authors: Tsu-Han Tu, 杜祖翰
• Other Authors: Der-Yuan Yang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2003
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16732412367023815546

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 金融營運所 === 91 === Many factors potentially may affect the stock index such as the money supply, mutual fund flow, and trade volumes. Though numerous researchers, analysts, and investors have devoted much time into these issues, no consistent results have been found on the roles of these factors. This paper focuses on the relationships among money supply, mutual fund flow, and trade volumes with respect to the weighted average index of the Taiwan stock market. Unit root test, co-integration test, and Granger test are performed to examine the relationships of the factors considered. The result shows the stock index and M1B are positively related. As for the flow of bond funds, trade volumes, and the stock index, there exists mutually feedback relationship. However, there is no distinct pattern of relations between stock funds and the stock index. As a result, to enhance the accuracy of forecasting the stock index, the impacts of the money supply, the flow of bond funds, and trade volumes must be considered.