| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 企業管理學系 === 91 === Abstract
The market of cellular telephone in Taiwan continuely extrends with grobal growing market. The user number of cellular telephone raise to 22 millions in march,2002.According to related data,The user number and prevalance remain grow up.But related report point out that the market of cellular telephone already can not grow up.The difference of result evoke the motivation.The paper adopt Time Series to analysis,concluding ARIMA,TF model and Intervention model.After empiricism,we construct any forecasting model at any way.And we also abtain three conclusions.First,the user number of cellular telephone should grow up in ARIMA model.Behind 18 periods,the amount arrives to 32 millions.The data apperars the fact that the demand remain continuely grow up.Second,employed population is the most influnence motivated factors that conclusing the user number of B.B call and population.The conclusion appeal to the fact that the user of cellular telephone remain focus on employed population.Third,the technology factor conclusing”DCS 1800 system” and “GSM 900 system”also have postive influnence on the market demand of cellular telephone in Taiwan.
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