| Summary: | 碩士 === 真理大學 === 管理科學研究所 === 92 === Many technological advances can be shown as the breakthrough and competition between new and old technologies. The substitution of the latest technology for the older one is continuous. The development of technology can be categorized as the distinctly technological generation, among which the latest generation is more efficient than its predecessor. Take mobile communication technologies for example, the systems change from analog to digital, then to digital multimedia. Due to the popularity of Internet, the technologies are now entering into mobile multimedia systems.
Combining scenario analysis and technological substitution model, the study investigates the subscribers’ development of third generation mobile communication and its business strategies, using interview the experts in the communication field. Also, the study finds the key fluencies and creates scenarios of the subscribers’ development of third generation mobile communication. Under each scenario, we’d forecast changes of communication technologies, hoping to offer some strategies and suggestions to mobile communication related firms.
The result shows two scenarios:「still thriving in 2.5G」and「bright future in B3G」. Under the former scenario, in 2014, the market share of 2.5G, 3G and B3G will be 40.09%, 50.64% and 9.27%, respectively. There are still three technologies in the market, 2.5G can’t be replaces by 3G, and the demand of mobile data will be less. Under the latter scenario, in 2014, 2.5G disappear from the market. The market share of 3G and B3G will be 68.14% and 31.86%, respectively. 3G will successfully apply to market and B3G will be accepted gradually. Mobile communication technologies will gradually integrate all seamless access services of communication technologies.
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