| Summary: | 碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 工業工程學所 === 92 === The development of new drugs is a crucial activity for pharmaceutical firms to take the comparative advantages. However, new drugs development is characterized as a highly risk activity because new drugs development always takes time and faces many uncertainty. Due to the lack of reliable approach, enterprises often experience difficulties in management of pharmaceutical R&D, particularly in management of new drug development. In order to take appropriate actions, pharmaceutical firms must consider the strategic effects of every investment stages and review the project performance with related value variation frequently. The thesis develops a systematic approach to managing pharmaceutical R&D. The research studies the aspects of Pharmaceutical Project, employs Real options theory, Trinomial Model Dependent on Skewness and Kurtosis (SKT) and Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEU) to estimate the changes of strategic values for an ongoing new drug development project. A major advantage of the proposed approach is that it can catch the project’s “real” prices of decision options dynamically based on the development progress.
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