A Study of Demand and Incidence for Taiwan Lottery

• Main Authors: Shih-Ting Lo, 羅詩婷
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16298566795107413764

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 會計與財稅所 === 92 === This study uses the responsers’ lottery expenditure and other relevant data of The 2002 Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (SFIE) in Taiwan Area of Republic of China to evaluate the damand and (net) incidence of the lottery which has been first lanched in January 2002. Different from other researches which employed small scale and local questionary survey data, this study adopts 22,317 samples, among these 8,658 lottery buyers, and more explanatory variables from SFIE for consideration. Under the assumption of a two stages consumption modeling approach for lottery demand, the first stage of estimation uses a probit specification to model the probability of purchasing a ticket, and then, the second stage of estimation models actual lottery expenditure conditional on participation. The results display that most variables have significant and expected impacts: educated years and personal income have inverse U shape impact on both whether to buy and how much to buy. The more recreation, cigarette, and alcohol expenditures, the more are lottery expenditures. City residents have higher probability to participate, but rural residents spend more on lottery conditional on participation. Similar to the conclusions of other studies, the findings, by each technique (such as Suits index, RSA), point out that individual’s expenditure in lottery possess regressivity, but the result of this research is comparatively moderate to a certain extent. This study further considers the influence of government expenditure from lottery surplus on the tax burden, and the result shows that net tax burden of lower income stratum possess progressivity. If it is the case of the lottery policy impact on low income stratum that the society pays attention to, it does not seems so pessimistic as the persons who object to the lottery launch.