A Study on Taiwan Business Cycles With Disequilibrium
碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 92 === This thesis estimates three cointegration relations embedded in Taiwan’s aggregate economic data. They are the consumption-income balanced-growth, the investment-income balanced-growth, and the long-run money demand function. A disequilibrium index is established to...
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| Format: | Others |
| Language: | zh-TW |
| Published: |
2004
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| Online Access: | http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/56215185986141611746 |
| Summary: | 碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 92 === This thesis estimates three cointegration relations embedded in Taiwan’s aggregate economic data. They are the consumption-income balanced-growth, the investment-income balanced-growth, and the long-run money demand function. A disequilibrium index is established to indicate the economic vulnerability state. A nonlinear error correction model based on the disequilibrium index is used to forecast the business cycles of Taiwan. We find that the improvement of this nonlinear forecast model over the conventional linear error correction model is however quite limited.
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