產險公司動態財務分析模型之實證測試

• Main Authors: Lu, Shin-Yi, 盧欣怡
• Other Authors: Tsai , Chenghsien
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20519437080078201717

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 風險管理與保險研究所 === 92 === This paper set out to empirically test whether the dynamic financial analysis model (DFA), developed in a joint project of Department of Management Information Systems and Risk Management and Insurance, National Chengchi University, could accurately classify both solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers. We used a logistic regression model to analyze the solvency prediction accuracy of the DFA model. The empirical results indicated that none of the variables were significant at the 10% level and did not offer strong supporting evidence that the DFA model could accurately predict the solvency of insurers. Based on this, we suggest that further research should perhaps use data over different years to increase the accuracy of the statistical analysis, by using larger samples; this may improve the DFA model by coordinating actual situations with various reinsurance arrangements. In the empirical tests, we found that the DFA model still has some bugs. If these bugs can be efficiently deleted, we expect a revised DFA model to perform well in predicting the solvency of property-liability insurers.